
Photo from MMAFighting.com by Esther Lin
What a year it has been for the Ultimate Fighting Championship; the premier promotion in MMA. We were all witnesses to the Edgar-Maynard saga, the purchase of StrikeForce, filling a baseball stadium with over 55,000 fight fans, the rise of Jon Jones, the Twister, UFC on FOX, Nick Diaz’s actions and non-actions, Henderson-Shogun, the announcement of the Flyweights and countless fight moments along the way. However, the UFC has saved its biggest hook for the end of the year card, literally.
On Friday, December 30 in Las Vegas, the six-foot three, 265 pounds, former NCAA Division I wrestling champion and former UFC Heavyweight champion, Brock Lesnar (5-2-0 MMA; 4-2 UFC) will try and ruin the UFC debut of the six-foot five, 256 pounds, former StrikeForce and former K-1 Heavyweight Grand Prix champion, Alistair Overeem (35-11-1 MMA; 0-0 UFC). This is the quintessential “striker vs. grappler” match-up. Period. End of story. Thanks for playing.
This is one of those match-ups that fight fans have been arguing over and dreaming of ever since Lesnar made his MMA debut in 2007. We finally get to see the best fight the best. Since the purchase of StrikeForce by Zuffa, the parent company of the UFC, everyone has been wondering when cross-promotional fights were going to happen. For months after the purchase Dana White, president of the UFC, stated at every turn “it’s business as usual.” In a way, this is business as usual for the UFC. Giving fans fights that they want to see. We all wanted this fight to take place, so here we are. Consider this a late holiday gift from the magical wonder that is Zuffa.
Lesnar will have a huge advantage if he can get this fight to the ground, and frankly, the sooner the better for him. He will have an advantage in size, weight and position control experience if he can gain side control or even half guard. Lesnar has always been credited by peers for being able to move like a lightweight. You can clearly see why during his fight with Frank Mir at UFC 81. When Lesnar had top position over Mir and spun his hips over Mir’s head to his back so fast that he looked like a large tattooed blur. Lesnar’s half guard game was on full display at UFC 100, again, against Frank Mir. During the first round of action, Lesnar was in Mir’s half guard and was able to wrap on arm around the back of Mir’s neck. Some people referred to this as the “Brock Lock.” Mir was in a bad spot and could not use any of his BJJ black belt experience to get out of it and took serious damage.
However, the fight will start on the feet, as they all do. This will be an advantage for Overeem as this is the area for him to have the most success. He will undoubtedly be looking for the Knockout of the Night bonus, but he has to be smart about it. He cannot afford to put all of his energy behind every punch or strike like Lenard Garcia does. If he does, he will leave himself exposed to Lesnar’s explosive takedowns. Instead, look for “The Reem” to use footwork and angles to slip jabs, crosses and low-level leg kicks from the outside. Then he will create distance to reengage. The clinch is another avenue that Overeem may find success in. His knee strikes and trips are as powerful as they are accurate. If you recall the beginning of the end of his fight versus Brett Rogers in StrikeForce; it was a leg trip from the clinch that put Rogers on the mat. Soon after, Overeem finished him off with unanswered strikes against the cage. Overeem has also shown in the past that his guillotine submission is a force to be reckoned with. It must be all of that horsemeat he eats.
The bright lights and the big stage of the UFC should not be a factor for Overeem. This will be his 48th professional bout. His career has taken him all over the world, including two of his last three here in the United States. Lesnar is coming off of surgery and a long layover. “Octagon Rust,” if it exist, maybe a factor for Lesnar. He may also be overzealous to prove that he’s back and it’s ‘his’ octagon to the new comer. This may lead to him burning large amounts of energy quickly or losing composure in a semi-dangerous spot. I think Overeem will come out with a steady pace that keeps Lesnar on his heels and guessing.
Quick Breakdown…
Experience: Overeem
Striking: Overeem
Wrestling: Lesnar
Submissions: Overeem
Speed: Draw
Power: Draw
Official Prediction…
Overeem chops Lesnar down with leg kicks, punches and avoids the takedowns. Thus keeping the fight standing for most of the rounds. Overeem will TKO Lesnar in the second round.