UFC 148 Preview: By The Numbers

UFC 148 is just days away, and everyone is compiling all of the numbers to try and figure out just who really does have an advantage and who doesn’t. Our own John Petit compiled a list of all the important stats and numbers for this event to show just who is better where.

Chad Mendes vs Cody McKenzie
Two stats jump off the page right away in this featherweight battle: Mendes is coming in a huge favorite at -500 and McKenzie has a massive height and reach advantage. Mendes being the favorite isn’t that much of a surprise, especially considering the fact that his last fight was against Jose Aldo for the title. McKenzie’s height and reach will be a factor for Mendes as he stands six inches taller and has a six inch reach advantage. Mendes, a wrestler, typically grinds his opponents down with his dominant wrestling skills holding a 57% accuracy in his takedown attempts and never being taken down by any of his opponents. McKenzie doesn’t need to take his opponents down as he has one of the best defenses for a mistake from a takedown: his guillotine. It is no secret that McKenzie loves the submission and has been able to hit it from nearly anywhere winning twelve fights with the submission out of thirteen.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Demian Maia
Maia had a fairly successful run as a middleweight, even earning himself a title shot against Anderson Silva. But after losing his last fight to Chris Weidman, it was time to make a change and fight at welterweight. The odds makers aren’t sure what to do with this fight as it is very close to even with Kim coming in the slight favorite at -135. Kim not only holds a four inch reach advantage over Maia, his striking accuracy inside the octagon is greater than Maia’s. Maia does hold a slight edge in striking defense, but it isn’t at the same portion that separates the two while attacking. Maia’s strength lies in his ability to submit his opponent and that plays a reason why he sometimes gives up the takedown, so he can put his opponent in his world. Surprisingly, Kim has the edge when it comes to actual takedowns and has shown he is even more difficult to take down.

Cung Le vs Patrick Cote
Cote, another former middleweight title contender, is coming in the favorite over Le at -260. Neither fighter has a winning record inside the UFC, though for Le, he has only had one fight for the promotion. Le’s last five fights resulted in him winning 3 and dropping two, while Cote is 4-1 riding a four fight win streak into the fight. Le’s southpaw stance and ability to land spinning kicks, almost at will all play into is his slight edge in striking accuracy, but it’s also why he is so difficult to hit where he holds a major advantage over Cote in the defense department. Neither fighter has been known for their takedowns and even though Le is favored in both defending as well as completing his own takedowns, it shouldn’t be a factor in this fight. What will be a factor is Cote’s reach advantage and how he plans to use the five inch reach to keep Le on the outside.

Forrest Griffin vs Tito Ortiz
Ortiz is going to be inducted into the UFC Hall of Fame before the fight as this is likely his retirement fight. This will be the third time the two meet, each having won a previous encounter. Griffin is coming in the favorite at -320, likely due to the fact that while his last five he is sporting a losing record with 2-3, Ortiz’s record is worse at 1-4. Griffin holds an advantage in reach and takedowns, while Ortiz is able to land more punches than Griffin.

Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen
Silva is coming in the heavy favorite at -270 and should be. He holds the advantage in height, reach, streak, shorter fight time, striking accuracy and takedown accuracy. The two spots where Sonnen does hold an advantage, takedown defense and striking defense are by a slim margin. Silva has won fifteen straight fights, and holds the record for most successful title defenses and wins in the UFC. But one also should look at the numbers from the first fight. Sonnen was winning the fight for twenty-three minutes. He outland Silva in significant strikes 89 to 29 and landed 251 strikes to Silva’s head while Silva was only able to retaliate with 52 of his own. In the grappling department, Silva took Sonnen down a single time, while Silva was taken down three times with Sonnen attempting seven times. Once on the ground, Sonnen held the advantage in position and sweeps.

This article is based on the UFC by the numbers stat sheet compiled by John Petit. All stats and percentages are just for the Zuffa fights. To be added to his distribution list contact him on twitter @scream13 or at facebook.com/jmerrilpetit