Jake Ellenberger – via UFC.com

Jake Ellenberger has come from nowhere to shoot up the ladder in the welterweight division and will look to move one step closer to a title shot this weekend as he faces off with Denmark’s greatest MMA export, Martin ‘The Hitman’ Kampmann. Ellenberger and Kampmann meet this weekend at “The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale” and will take the main event slot on the card. The event is set to feature nearly all of the seasons cast members with the exceptions of Andy Ogle and Mike Rio, who have not been cleared to compete on the card.

Ellenberger is clean off of two career best wins over Jake Shields and Diego Sanchez and is on a six-fight win streak since a debut loss to current interim champion Carlos Condit. Shields was a big favorite coming in to the fight having just fought for the title one fight prior but Ellenberger needed less than a minute to dispose of the former title challenger at UFC Fight Night 25. Shields had had personal problems coming in to that fight with his father passing away just a month before the fight and many felt that the outcome was a reflection of that. “The Juggernaut” proved he was no fluke though by earning a unanimous decision over Sanchez at UFC on Fuel TV 1 in the “Fight of the Night”. Ellenberger is 10-1 in his last 11 fights.

Martin Kampmann (19-5) comes in on the heels of a come-from-behind submission win over Thiago Alves back in March at UFC on FX 2. Alves was seemingly on his way to a unanimous decision victory when, with just a minute left in the fight, he shot in for a takedown against the cage and Kampmann locked in a guillotine choke, forcing the tap at 4:12 of the third round and earning a “Submission of the Night” bonus for it. The win followed an impressive unanimous decision victory over Rick Story at UFC 139 in November 2011. Prior to those two victories, the Dane had lost two-straight razor thin decisions to Jake Shields and Diego Sanchez in fights which Kampmann and a lot of other people felt he had won. Had he gotten the nod in those bouts he would be on a six-fight streak since a knockout loss to Paul Daley in 2009.

Junior Dos Santos by Justin McAllister

UFC 146 features the Heavyweight Championship headlining main event between UFC world heavyweight champion Junior Do Santos 14-1 (8-0 UFC) makes his first defense against former two time UFC heavyweight champion Frank Mir 16-5 (14-5 UFC). Do Santos comes into his fight with Mir after defeating Cain Velasquez back in November of 2011 knocking out Veasquez to win the heavyweight title on the inaugral UFC on FOX fight card. Mir originally was to face the former champion Velasquez as the co-main event at UFC 146, but instead will be stepping in for Do Santos’s Original opponent Allistar Overeem who was removed from the main event due to failing a post fight drug test containning high Levels of testtosterone.Mir is coming into the main event on a three fight winning Streak defeating Mirko Flipovic, Roy Nelson, and most recently a submission victory over Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 140.

The key strengths of between these two heavyweights is what makes this championship battle a pretty interesting match up. The champion Do Santos is very well rounded having great submission skills having trained under the Nouguiras in Brazillian Jiu Jitsu. Most of his wins however have come by way of knockout making him a well known dangerous stand up fighter. Mir on the other hand is a very well rounded fighter, and has excellent stand up along with Jiu Jitsu. However, Mir’s specialty is his submission skills especially off his back.

This fight is dangerous for both fighters with only one leaving the victor with the heavyweight title arond their waist. Do Santos must be aware that Mir is very powerfull on his feet, and time Mir’s punches to avoid getting hit by his powerfull one-two combinations he is capable of throwing. Do Santos would need to be cautious, and capitalize on any openings he may spot. With Do Santos very skilled with the ground game, utilizing those skills may also be a key success to get a win over Mir. Mir has all the credentials and tools to defeat Do Santos considering the size difference, height of past oppenents hasn’t really been much of a problem for Mir. If he can weather the powerfull punches of Do Santos, and use his excellent ground game like he has in past victories he could not only be once again the UFC heavyweight champion, but put himself in the history books as the second heavyweight to have won the title three times. As the fight nears, this could come down to whoever makes the first mistake that may tell us whats next in the future of the heavyweight division.

Cain Velsaquez by Justin McAllister

With both fighters trying to get back in the win column, former UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez will clash with Strikeforce and Elite XC veteran Antonio Silva in the co-main event of UFC 146. The event takes place Saturday, May 26th at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. While Velasquez was originally supposed to face Frank Mir and Silva was supposed to fight Roy Nelson, the card switched around after headliner Alistair Overeem was pulled due to an exceeded testosterone ratio.

For Velasquez, this performance needs to get him back on track. He made a very unfortunate showing in his title fight against Junior Dos Santos at UFC on FOX, being dropped and finished in the opening moments of the fight. For the fight, Velasquez looked a bit more pudgy than usual; a possible sign of not being true-to-form after a shoulder surgery. It has been the only competition Velasquez had since he won the heavyweight title in 2010. Having one minute and four seconds of cage time in the last two years is a plus for no competitor. I will be very interested to see how Velasquez looks at weigh-ins – hopefully back to his usual self.

As far as his 2011 fight history, Silva is in the same boat. While being a bit more active than Velasquez, he too has taken some considerable time off after his knockout loss to Daniel Cormier, coming back eight months from the date. The time off could easily mean we are set to see a more polished Silva. Before the Cormier fight, Silva amassed the top three wins of his career, besting Andre Arlovski, Mike Kyle, and most famously Fedor Emelianenko. The striker is certainly to be respected in the cage, and if not, anyones night can be over shortly. An issue he will have to overcome is that Roy Nelson, his original opponent, was a good match-up for him. Velasquez, on the other hand, is a taller task.

For me, it comes down to who I have seen them compete against before. Silva just competed against a mirror image of Velasquez in his last fight against Cormeir. Cormier was able to blast the larger, slower Silva on the feet earning the victory via first-round knockout. I can’t see the striking going much different against Velasquez, who is a more proven striker than Cormeir. This leaves Silva with his best chance being to take Velasquez down, hold him there, and rain down heavy ground-and-pound. With a quick scrambling wrestler the caliber of Velasquez under you, good luck.

Velasquez versus Nogueria is a similar match-up as well. While I believe Silva is a bit quicker than Nogueria is, I don’t think his overall striking, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu are any more advanced. Against Velasquez, Nogeria was hammered with a huge punch in the first round and removed from his senses. Because Velasquez’s boxing is at an even higher level than Cormier’s, I believe he will find slips to get to Silva’s massive chin and do some damage. If Velasquez chooses to wrestle, I also see him dominating on top with ground-and-pound, possible triggering a stoppage in the later rounds.

My official prediction is Velasquez by TKO, round three

Roy Nelson Cut after UFC 143

The heaviest card in UFC history is upon us come this Saturday night from Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Arena. And after Alistair Overeem throwing a wrench in the works and  Gabriel Gonzaga getting injured; Roy Nelson has landed on Dave Herman to keep this card all heavyweights for the first time the promotions history. Thank goodness for that, right!? We’ll see. The heavyweight division is as deep as it has ever been, but this card still seems forced to me. However, none of that will matter if the card is a huge (pun) PPV success. The masses do love heavyweight action. They are drawn into them for some mystical reason, but are they drawn to ‘these’ heavyweights?

Roy Nelson (16-7 MMA; 70%) is coming off of a moral victory for dropping a unanimous decision with Fabricio Werdum instead of being knocked out in the first round back at UFC 143 in February. Did I mention Nelson’s granite chin before, of course I have, because it’s painfully obvious that he has one. Nelson is one out of his last three fights in the UFC and sits at an even three-and-three overall in the same promotion. This is not a must win for the TUF Season 10 winner, but it is a fight that he should win. He is a -225 at the first MMA betting odds website that I Googled. Fights that you ‘should’ win are more dangerous to a career than any other fights.

Dave Herman (21-3 MMA; 88%) is also coming off of a lose to Stefan Struve via TKO in the second round at UFC on FUEL TV back in February as well as his opponent. Herman is only one-and-one with the MMA’s top promotion, so this match makes a lot of good MMA sense on paper. Even if they don’t match up in other areas such as MMA background, nicknames, body type and hairstyles. Herman has a good shot at becoming the darling of the night if he can win as a decent underdog, especially if it’s a powerful knockout or quick submission.

Ways to Win…
Nelson should be able to get in close with his power striking and get the clinch. From there, with his lower center of gravity, he might want to take the fight to the ground as soon as possible while they are dry. After gaining half guard or even side control from the takedown, he will have the option to win by TKO with his strategic ‘ground and pound’ or by a submission.

Herman should stick behind his jab and keep the distance/his hips away from Nelson as long as possible. I hope his cardio is up to snuff, because this may go all three rounds with Nelson’s power chin. Maybe a good plan would be to attack the legs with low kicks and keep the distance with push kicks. I know you shouldn’t kick wrestlers in order to avoid easy single leg takedowns, but maybe it will work if Herman is quick enough.

Prediction…
Nelson via kimura in round one followed quickly with a slender belly rub. Dana White shakes his head.

On May 26th, UFC 146′s opening heavyweight bout to kick of the main card features two key heavyweights looking to cement their position in the top ten rankings. 6 feet 11 inch Dutch heavyweight Stefan Struve was originally slated to face Mark Hunt who had to pull out due to injury will now be facing Lavar Johnson. Struve is coming into this fight with a victory over Dave Herman back in Febuary in which he won by second round tko on the UFC’s first Fuel TV card. This bout against Johnson will be his 11th fight in the UFC. Struve has a record of 23-5 (7-3 UFC). Struve’s opponent “Big” Lavar Johnson is making a quick return back to the Octagon, just three weeks after his last fight in which he defeated Pat Barry. Johnson is stepping in as a replacement for Hunt making this his third UFC fight in four months. Johnson comes into this fight with a record of 17-5 (2-0 UFC). Johnson has previously competed under the other owned ZUFFA Banner Strikeforce.

Struve is not afraid to engage in battles of striking or engage in kickboxing battles considering one of his advantages in this fight would be his reach advantage as well. Even though Struve isn’t a well known ground person, he says that he is confident he can manage on the ground if he has to. Struve has pulled off submissions in his career in the past, but it can be very likely he will have no problem standing with Johnson like he has with past opponents. Johnson has high confidence after his victory on May 5. Johnson is an extremely dangerous standup fighter, and it shows on his record with fifteen of his seventeen victories coming by way of knockout. His main strength would be his striking in this match up.

The keys to victory for both fighters in this heavyweight bout would come down to trying to stay on their game plans. Struve was preparing for a power puncher in Mark Hunt anyway for UFC 146 so his way of being successfull would be staying busy using his reach advantage, and staying out of range of Johnson’s bombs, and he must watch so he doesn’t get pressed up on the cage fence which is where Johnson’s past victims have fallen prey to Johnson’s onslaughts. Struve may also wanna consider using his kickboxing striking to possibly throw at Johnson’s legs to wear him down. Johnson’s keys to victory would pretty much to work inside Struve’s reach, and not be discouraged by that factor. Many feel Lavar Johnson’s best bet would be to stay off his back considering Struve can utilize his ground game if he can. If Johnson can work around Stefan Struve’s reach, and stay out of range of his kicks This bout makes for a very interesting match up to make either of their futures in this sport a brighter one.

Barnett vs Cormier Poster

Strikeforce: Barnett vs Cormier will take place on May 19, 2012 at the HP Pavillion in San Jose, California. The card marks the final of a prolonged Strikeforce heavyweight tournament. It was highly rumored that the winner of Josh Barnett vs Daniel Cormier was getting an immediate entry into the UFC, but recent statements from Strikefore executives have said otherwise.

At the outset of the tournament, Cormier wasn’t even a participant. Everyone’s two top picks were Alistair Overeem and Fedor Emelianenko; neither of which had more than one fight in the bracket. Overeem’s departure lead to the Olympic wrestler stepping in and Knocking out Antonio Silva, instantly promoting him into the final. With the event set in San Jose, not only does Cormier have a jolt of momentum behind him, but he has home-field advantage as well.

Barnett is one of the most veteran MMA fighters in the sport today. To put this into perspective, he was the UFC heavyweight champion in 2002 at UFC 36 and now sits at an impressive 31-5. Barnett is a catch-wrester who has shown to have very dangerous striking if you are not careful. He has most recently dominated Brett Rogers and Sergi Kharitonov to earn his spot in the final.

I will be very interested to see what kind of game-plan Barnett chooses to employ. Many think that he may be forced to stand and kick-box, and I think he knows that as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Barnett try to surprise Cormier with some heavy leg kicks and stiff, stright boxing, setting up take-down attempts. In heated scrambling situations, don’t be surprised to see Barnett dive for leg-locks.

Cormier will likely look to mix up his boxing with his wrestling. He has recently shown major leaps forward in his striking ability, winning his last two fights on-the-feet. Expect him to try and slip under the longer strikes of Barnett and use Barnett’s leg kicks as take-down opportunities. Barnett can never get too comfortable striking, because Cormier may be very able to take him down at will.

The striking will be decided on how much pressure Cormier is trying to put on. If he is rushing Barnett, expect Barnett to counter-box and jump on submissions if they present themselves during take-downs (guillotines, kimuras, leg-locks). If Cormier is being a mobile target on the outside, expect Barnett to blast him with kicks and keep him at a jabs length.

If this fight finds it’s way to the ground as I expect it to, the battle will quickly be Cormier looking for ground-and-pound and Barnett looking for submissions. If Cormier leaves something open, you can bet that Barnett will jump on it instantly. Wrestlers have historically had problems with leg-locks when facing a high-level submission specialist – and history repeats itself.

My official prediction is Josh Barnett by submission (heel hook)

Gilbert Melendez – via Showtime

This Saturday May 19th Strikeforce will crown a heavyweight grand prix champion and could possibly also crown a new Lightweight Champion as well, when current champion meets former champion in a rubber match between two great rivals when champ Gilbert Melendez (20-2) meets Josh Thomson (19-4-1) meet again for the third time.

Melendez who is coming off of 6 consecutive victories truly believes he is the best lightweight champion in the world despite not facing UFC caliber opponents,and thats just what he’s going to go out and try to prove every time he steps in that cage and will not settle for anyhing less than a less than dominant win this weekend. Earlier in the week when asked where how he wants the fight to go “EL NINO” Replied “Of course I want to finish Josh. I want bad intentions towards him, I want to destroy this guy. I want to make a statement.” Make a statement. Thats all Gilbert Melendez hopes to do until he can finally crossover to the UFC where he believes the only people he deems competition reside. It might not be as easy come Saturday against a guy who already has a little experience in beating Melendez.

Thomson who is coming off of a lackluster win against K.J. Noons in which was his first fight in two years after significant leg injuries kept him sidelined all that time. Don’t expect the ring rust to be here this time as he’s sure to readily prepare for his rival and champion in Melendez. Call this fight what you want, but I am sure if its anything like the last two its not going to be anything but entertaining as the last fight came down to these two warriors slugging it out at the bell, and the decision going Melendez way which was different than their first meeting when the cards went Thomson’s way in another battle and putting that last notch in Gilberts loss column.

Both fighters are all around fighters and this fight should be competitive and fast paced but thats about all because this fight is pretty much like watching the Titantic or The Alamo because you may watch it for the action but you already know whats going to happen at the end and that will be a Gilbert Melendez unanimous decision victory and the eventual UFC move…… hopefully.

UFC on Fuel TV 3 Poster

On May 15th, two explosive UFC featherweights will headline UFCs’ card on Fuel Tv in the main event. Dustin Poirier will take on the “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung. The result of how this bout came about was revealed by UFC officials in early Febuary after the fighters verbally began jabbing one another on twitter. Poirier called out Jung following his victory at UFC 143 over Max Holloway which became Poiriers’ fifth straight victory bringing his record in mma to 12-1 (4-0 UFC). Poirers’ opponent Chan Sung Jung 12-3 (2-0 UFC) returns in this main event coming off his stunning seven second knockout win over past title contender Mark Hominick back in December at UFC 140. This bout has the potential to become one of this years most exciting fights with a win from from either Poirier or Jung can result in putting one of them in title contention taking on the winner of Jose Aldo or Erik Koch for the UFC featherweight championsship.

Dustin Poirier doesn’t just rely on one specialty. He feels that his skills as a mixed martial artist are enough to beat anyone. “I’m a different fighter every night.” Poirier said last week in an interview. ” I’m dangerous anywhere the fight goes.” He strongly stated. Poirier is very confident that where ever the fight goes he will be dominant. Poiriers’ strengths coming into this fight is that of being well rounded with good ground game along with a good stand up game as well.

Chan Sung Jung has very good game in his stand up ability along with submissions as well. He is a very dangerous fighter, and Poirier is aware of this. Jung showed his dangerous submission game defeating Leanard Garcia in an incredible twister submission, and his heavy hand power when he knocked out Mark Hominick. Jungs’ big strength is that he isn’t afraid to go where the fight goes, and is also very dangerous on his back as well.

In order for either of these fighters to walk out of the main event with a victory, they must stick to their game plans. According to most of the mma community, there is alot riding on this fight that can very well determine the future of the featherweight division. Dustin Poriers’ keys to victory is that of pressing the fight to Jung, but must be cautious and watch for Jungs’ heavy hands when standing up if they should get into exchanges. Poirier must utilize his wrestling, but if he ends up in Jungs’ guard, he has to stay busy and at same time watch out for Jungs’ multiple attempts’ to fight off his back.

Chan Sung Jungs’ keys to winning this fight is to work his stand up, and have strong takedown defense especially with an opponent like Poirier. Another big key if Jung wants to be successful is not to be afraid to be in an all out war along with hitting Poirier with clean shots. If Jung should end up using his guard, he will have to try and stay busy using striking and multiple submission attenpts considering his talented skill of being able to fight off his back with a simular style to Anthony Pettis.

Cowboy Cerrone – via Wikipedia

On a rare Tuesday night, we will have more free MMA action from the sports’ largest promotion, the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Part of the six fight main card will be an opportunity for one fighter to bounce back into elite status in the deepest division with in the organization. That bout will put Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone against Jeremy “Lil Heathen” Stephens at lightweight.

Cerrone (17-4-1; 77%) was riding as high as anyone else at the end of 2011 with an impressive six fight win streak within the WEC and UFC, with his last loss coming at the hands of the current UFC champion, Benson Henderson. However, that all changed when he stepped into the cage with Nate Diaz on December 30 when Cerrone played Diaz’s game and dropped a decision. All of his momentum and swagger went out the window. Now he looks forward to trail a new path a title shot, which starts with Stephens on Tuesday night. Cerrone will need to put together another three or four fight win streak in order to be considered for a title shot. With his long reach, aggressive style, good kickboxing and BJJ, don’t be surprised to see him rise above the rest of the division, again.

Stephens (20-7; 74%) who is also coming into this bout from a loss via split decision in October of 2011 against the last WEC Champion, Anthony Pettis. Stephens looked impressive at points through out the fight, but did not do enough to convince the third judge. Stephens is a deep veteran with in the sport of MMA and the UFC over Cerrone. Which is one of the most interesting aspects of Stephens background. Starting amateur bouts at the age of 18 and has been with in the UFC since 2007 at UFC 71. Stephens always has a level of confidence because of his historic career.

Prediction: With Cerrone’s proven track record to string long winning streaks together and that he has never lost two-in-a-row, I think he’ll have the edge and take this fight. Again, his long reach, more advanced kickboxing and BJJ skills will prove to be the difference.

Jason MacDonald – via UFC.com

Kicking off the main card of UFC on Fuel TV 3, middleweights Tom Lawlor and Jason MacDonald are set to do battle. The event takes place on Tuesday, May 15 at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Virginia airing live on Fuel TV.

Lawlor became a fan favorite in the UFC with his weigh-in and walkout parodies. While the costumes and skits got him fans, it hasn’t panned out for the middleweight inside the octagon losing three of his last four. His losses come at the hands of Aaron Simpson, Joe Doerksen, and Chris Weidman while his victory came over Patrick Cote.

MacDonald who was dubbed the “Ultimate Fighter” killer early on in his UFC career, was cut from the organization in 2009 after suffering back-to-back losses. He put together a 3-1 record after being released, earning his way back to the UFC. Like Lawlor, he hasn’t fared too well, going just 1-2 in his recent stint losing to John Salter and Alan Belcher.

Both fighters are likely on the verge of being released should they fail to earn a victory in the fight. MacDonald has experience on his side, bringing a massive 40 fights with him.

In order for Lawlor to win, he will need to overwhelm MacDonald early on much like several of MacDonald’s opponents who hold victories over him. MacDonald will try to weather the storm and then turn up his intensity as Lawlor has shown to decrease in speed as the fight plays out.

Barring a quick TKO victory, this fight will probably end up going the full fifteen minutes with MacDonald winning the majority of the time and thus earning a unanimous decision, 29-28.