There’s always a question of what to do with a fighter after he losses a title shot. Do you give him a fight with another top five opponent to put him back into the mix right away or do you put him against a fighter who is making a splash in the division? The later is what is holding true for Yushin Okami as he faces Tim Boetsch in Japan.

Boetsch is coming into the fight a heavy underdog and rightfully so. He is after all facing a former number one contender and Boetsch is just scratching the surface of the top ten.

After a crushing loss to Phil Davis at UFC 123, Boetsch decided he needed to change things up and dropped down to the middleweight division. His first foray was against Kendall Grove where he earned a unanimous decision. Grove was then subsequently cut from the UFC for the loss.

Boetsch followed up the victory with another unanimous decision over Nick Ring. For a guy who had never went to a decision outside of the UFC, Ring was his third. This isn’t a knock so to speak on Boetsch, rather an observation that against the lower tiered guys he has trouble finishing.

Okami meanwhile is coming off his TKO loss to Anderson Silva. Silva has a habit of making good fighters look like terrible fighters. Okami is what many call a grinder, a fact that has played into why it took so long for him to earn his title shot.

Okami’s game plan will be to take Boetsch down and do enough to get the victory while Boetsch will likely try to stand and trade.

In predicting this fight the first thing that came to mind was that this wasn’t going to be an exciting fight for the American fans, but it will likely be exciting for the Japanese fans in attendance. American fans are prone to want more violence and don’t appreciate the little intricacies that can go into a fight.

The safest prediction for this fight is rather boring, much like the fight will likely be, in that Okami wins by unanimous decision.

Bart Palaszewski - drawn by Justin McAllister

To the common fan, the featherweight fight between Bart Palaszewski and Hatsu Hioki probably doesn’t stand out. And that is sad. But the reality is, it is because both guys have only had one fight inside the UFC though both fighters took different paths to get there.

Like Pettis and Lauzon, Palaszewski and Hioki both competed at the same card at UFC 137 in October of 2011. And like Pettis and Lauzon, one finished the fight in the first round, while the other squeezed out split decision.

Hioki made a name for himself competing in Shooto and Sengoku against top competition. Prior to his UFC debut, he put together a four-fight win streak. The win streak wasn’t just against nobodies in the featherweight division as it included wins over Takeshi Inoue and Marlon Sandro.

Prior to the Inoue fight, Hioki lost a split decision to Michihiro Omigawa in a fight many thought he won. Prior to the loss he went 8-0-1 finishing six of his eight opponents.

Hioki’s debut for the UFC was against George Roop and it came with a little bit of controversy. Roop was able to keep his distance and picked Hioki apart, but when Hioki was able to get his hands on Roop fireworks exploded. The fight was a back-and-forth battle and Hioki barely got the nod via split decision.

Palaszewski made not only his UFC debut, but his featherweight debut at UFC 137 against former top 10 lightweight and now featherweight fighter Tyson Griffin. He stated prior to the fight that he was going to knock Griffin out and that is what he did.

Less than three minutes into the fight Palaszewski saw his opening and the Team Curran fighter capitalized on it. He unloaded a barrage of punches knocking Griffin out while standing.

Prior to his UFC debut, Palaszewski went 3-1 in his second stint in the WEC. The run includes a victory over Anthony Pettis and finishes over Karen Darabedyan and Zachary Micklewright.

A lot of people will be quick to give Hioki the advantage in the grappling department. The problem with that is that Palaszewski is a black belt in jiu jitsu, he just doesn’t tend to show off those skills. Even if Hioki does have the advantage on the ground, the question is, can he get it there.

Palaszewski lost a split decision to Kamal Shalorus, a fight that made him look hard at his wrestling. His fight against Griffin many gave Griffin a huge advantage for possibly being able to get the fight to the ground. He never got it there and Palaszewski earned a knockout of the night bonus.

Hioki was able to get dropped quite a bit in Shooto, but because there was a standing eight count, he could recover. Unless Hioki can recover in about half a second, he’s going to have a very rough night against Palaszewski. Thus I am predicting another first round knockout for Palaszewski

Joe Lauzon - photo via BJPenn.com

This isn’t the first time Lauzon has been called out and subsequently took a fight. Prior to his last fight, Melvin Guillard had expressed an interest in fighting Lauzon after putting together a five-fight win streak and was waiting to get a title shot. Guillard thought that a fight with Lauzon would be an easy win for him and would rebound him to a title shot. Unfortunately Lauzon had other plans.

Nearly everyone had given Guillard the advantage while standing. And why wouldn’t they when Guillard had finished nearly two-thirds of his fights with strikes while Lauzon had only finished five opponents with his hands. It seemed though that people had forgotten about Lauzon’s UFC debut knocking out Jens Pulver in one of the biggest upsets of 2006.

Everyone that is except Lauzon who did nearly the same thing. He landed a massive left hand that sent Guillard to the canvas. Instead of finishing him with strikes, Lauzon was patient and immediately took the back of Guillard. He got both of his hooks in and almost instantly secured his arm under the chin of Guillard and forced a tapout.

Earlier that same night at UFC 136, Anthony Pettis fought and looked to rebound off his loss to Clay Guida. Pettis fought an extremely hard fight against a very game Jeremy Stephens that went all three rounds.

The back and forth fight was nearly anyone’s guess as to who won. Many had Stephens winning the first round and Pettis winning the second. The third round was extremely close and in the end, two judges scored it for Pettis, while a third scored it for Stephens.

A short time after the fight, Pettis was interviewed and asked whom he wanted to fight next. His answer was Joe Lauzon and the video became a viral hit. Lauzon saw the video and said he was down for the fight. Sometimes Sean Shelby and Joe Silva have a very easy job like in this case when the fighters not only call each other out, but also verbally agree to the fight before being presented with a contract.

This fight is an intriguing one to predict. Lauzon has powerful hands and his striking has improved since his UFC debut. Pettis has also shown impressive abilities with his strikes as seen during his fight with Ben Henderson.

Both fighters have a slick ground game, Pettis is crafty and likes to bait fighters who are inside his guard into falling for a triangle choke. Lauzon has enough experience to avoid the submissions and be able to threaten with his top game.

Both fighters are extremely close skill wise, and because of that, one must look at prior experience and the point of their career. Pettis is arguably one of the most naturally talented fighters inside the octagon but he is still relatively young in his career. Lauzon seems to be coming into his career, mixing up his heavy hands and his aggressive jiu jitsu. For that reason I am predicting Lauzon to win this fight and hand Pettis his first submission loss by the end of the second round.

UFC on Fuel TV 1 Poster

UFC on FUEL TV is set with an explosive main event as welterweights Jake Ellenberger and Diego Sanchez are set to collide. A wrestler who has recently been showing off his hands, Ellenberger is a man on a mission, working for a UFC title shot. He is up against a tough, gritty veteran in Diego Sanchez, who is back to a healthy, party-less lifestyle leading up to the bout.

With a stunning first-round knockout of former top-contender Jake Shields, Ellenberger opened a spot for himself an the top of the welterweight division. It was his fifth straight win in the UFC, and the highest profile fight to date. At 26 years old, the sky is the limit for “The Juggernaut”. Known as a wrestler, Ellenberger has actually ended 22 of his 26 victories by way of knockout or submission. He is in for a tough fight against a durable Sanchez. If Ellenberger can impressively defeat Sanchez, he is sure to be on the cusp of a title shot.

Sanchez is a true UFC veteran. He bust onto the scene after The Ultimate Fighter Season 1, fighting in multiple divisions and racking up 12 UFC wins. Sanchez recently topped Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann by way of decision. He has admitted to being too involved with a party-first lifestyle, and for the past couple years has been fighting sub-par to his full potential. He believes that with a combination of dedicated months of training and an aggressive opponent, this will be his finest showing.

It seems that Sanchez will look to stand and turn this into a striking match. Sanchez’s grappling is at a high level, but he usually presses forward with a boxing approach. I could see Ellenberger standing and seeing what he can accomplish on the feet as well. Ellenberger is the better wrestler, and I believe that if he wants to grind out a decision with take-downs and submission defense, he can. Based on Sanchez’s last few showings, I can see him hanging tough with Ellenberger, but I’m not convinced that he will find a TKO victory. While I expect Sanchez to strike, his best chance to win this fight may be by submission.

With Ellenberger holding the choice of deciding where this fight takes place, I will predict the fight in his favor. I believe that Ellenberger will win via Unanimous Decision.

Dave Herman - photo by MMA Junkie

Heavyweights will collide in the co-main event for UFC on Fuel TV 1 as Dave Herman takes on Stefan Struve. The night of action takes place on Wednesday, February 15th at the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Nebraska and will be headlined in a welterweight fight between Diego Sanchez and Jake Ellenberger.

Struve is the tallest UFC fighter on the roster standing at 6’11” and he has used his reach advantage in several of his fights. At just 23 years old, Struve is still very new to the sport, but has shown maturity and growth in his nine UFC fights.

Struve has had an up and down career inside the octagon starting his UFC career with a knockout loss to Junior Dos Santos. He rebounded with three straight victories; submitting Denis Stojnic and Chase Gormley while earning a unanimous decision against Paul Buentello.

He then suffered a first round knockout loss to Roy Nelson, before rebounding again with back-to-back victories over Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle. He finished both fighters, splitting the difference with a knockout over Morecraft and submitting McCorkle.

In his last two fights, Struve lost to Travis Browne by TKO in the first round, while submitting Pat Barry in the second round. If there’s one thing that his record shows, Struve is susceptible to heavy handed fighters.

Herman meanwhile is only fighting his second UFC fight of his career, though he has nearly as many fights as Struve. Herman has fought in several big promotions prior to his UFC debut with fights in Sengoku and Bellator.

In his UFC debut Herman had a back-and-forth battle with John Olav-Einemo that was one of the most fun fights to watch at UFC 131. The fight started out with a frantic pace, almost one of a lightweight, but both fighters quickly slowed. When the gas tanks were spent, it was all either fighter could do to compile more than one punch.

Herman kept at it however and in the second round he was able to best Olav-Einemo earning him the TKO victory and the fight of the night bonus.

The fight has some intriguing details to consider when predicting a winner. Herman has won over 70% of his fights by TKO, while Struve has won the majority of his fights by submission. But this stat is a little misleading as Struve has long limbs that excel at wrapping up an opponent into submission after he has been hurt by a punch and his opponent gets sloppy.

The big issue however is Struve’s chin. Of his five losses, four have come by (technical) knockout. Herman has shown his knockout power in not only his UFC fight, but fights outside the organization.

For Struve, he needs to be able to weather the storm that Herman will likely bring as Herman has shown his gas tank can empty quickly. A likely scenario is that if the fight ends in the first half of the fight Herman’s hand is being raised, and if it ends later than that, Struve will likely be the victor.

Being that this is the first fight for Fuel TV and fighters are always wanting to make statements for new shows, I am expecting fireworks in this heavyweight clash. For that reason, I am predicting Herman to win by TKO late in the first round.

An intriguing middleweight fight is set for the debut offering of UFC on Fuel TV. Aaron Simpson will take on Ronny Markes at the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Nebraska. The event takes place on Wednesday, February 15th.

Markes made his UFC debut at UFC on Versus 5 against Karlos Vemola when he stepped in for an injured Stephan Bonnar. Markes applied constant pressure to Vemola through out the fight, seemingly taking him down at will.

The only downside was that Markes didn’t have much of answer for what to do next. Vemola tried to escape and did at times, forcing Markes to clinch and take the fight to the ground time after time. The fight was a unanimous decision for for Markes, but not an impressive one.

After the fight, Markes stated that he would be dropping down to the middleweight division for the duration of his UFC career.

Simpson is riding a three-fight win streak into the fight with victories over Eric Schafer, Brad Tavares, and Mario Miranda. Prior to the win streak, Simpson suffered back-to-back losses to Mark Munoz and Chris Leben.

Simpson entered the UFC in early 2009 and showed that his wrestling ability is extremely dangerous and to look out for it. He used it to earn a come-from-behind victory over Tom Lawlor to earn the Fight of the Night bonus.

What makes this fight so intriguing is that Markes has shown he likes to take people down and hold them there, but Simpson posses the wrestling knowledge and skills to avoid the takedowns. The adage of wrestlers dictate where the fight ends up, likely will apply here, but will most likely mean that the two stand and throw leather instead of take the other down. Much like Tyson Griffin versus Sean Sherk, this could become an exciting slug-fest for that reason.

While I don’t think all the action will take place standing, I am expecting one fighter to be successful with his takedowns. I am looking for Simpson to generate enough damage on the feet to be able to take Markes down and grind out a decision.

 Bantamweight fighters T.J. Dillashaw and Walel Watson are likely fighting for their UFC career at UFC on Fuel TV 1. The event takes place on Wednesday February 15th at the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Nebraska.

Dillashaw was a member of the season 14 Ultimate Fighter. He surprised many by defeating Matt Jaggers to earn his entry into the house. From there he was selected as part of Team Bisping. Dillashaw defeated Roland Delorme and Dustin Pague to earn his way to the finals.

At the finale he made his UFC debut against John Dodson. Dodson stunned everyone with his technical knockout victory over Dillashaw spoiling Dillashaw’s plans to be the next Ultimate Fighter.

Watson meanwhile is one-and-one in his UFC career. Making his debut at UFC on Versus 6, Watson made a splash on the bantamweight division with his quick finish over Joseph Sandoval. He needed just under ninety seconds to earn the TKO victory.

In his second UFC fight, he took on Yves Jabouin at UFC 140. The fight was extremely close with either the first or second round being able to be scored in Watson’s favor. The final round of the fight was clearly Watson’s and it was left to the judges. Only one judge scored the fight for Watson, with the other two giving Jabouin the split decision victory.

Bantamweights are a hard breed to predict. Due to their size, speed, and stamina it is more rare for a finish with strikes from them. Their punches have to be that much more precise and their ground game that much more complete. In what could be the difference maker between the two fighters could be their conditioning. I am going to predict that Dillashaw wins the unanimous decision and it is the fight of the night.

Philip De Fries - photo by Josh Hedges/UFC/Zuffa

Miocic has been dubbed a “Little Cro Cop” due to the style of fight shorts he wears. It also helps that of his seven victories, five have come by way of knockout and his one submission was due to leg kicks he delivered.

In his UFC debut Miocic took on Joey Beltran at UFC 136 in a back-and-forth striking battle. The three-round fight was close to call round by round, but Miocic was able to do enough to earn the victory.

De Fries made his debut at UFC 138 against Rob Broughton. Like Miocic, De Fries earned a unanimous decision in his debut. However unlike Miocic, the rest of his victories have come by way of submission.

De Fries trains out of Alliance with the likes of Dominick Cruz, Phil Davis, and Brandon Vera.

Both fighters are undefeated heading into the fight, and one will likely walk away with a loss on their hands. The question that needs to be answered is can De Fries take Miocic down before Miocic lands a heavy strike?

I think that he can and will. In what I am expecting to be a surprise, I am expecting De Fries to almost bullrush Miocic and score a quick takedown. When Miocic is trying to escape, I think he will leave an opening and De Fries will earn the submission victory in the first round.

Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit - photo Josh Hedges/UFC/Zuffa

With Nick Diaz pressing, the Vegas crowd roaring, and the UFC spotlight shining, Carlos Condit displayed a disciplined title-fight performance in the main event of UFC 143. He stuck to his game-plan throughout all five rounds against a taunting, relentless Diaz who has seemed to drag every one of his previous opponents into a dog fight. Condit edged Diaz out for the interim UFC welterweight title and a future date with Georges St Pierre.

For Condit, the plan was to kick, move, and not get in a firefight with Diaz. He rarely was backed into corners, and landed scores of kicks on Diaz, inculding some knees, elbows, and combinations of punches. Condit retreated a great deal; maybe more than he was expecting too. Diaz was hot on his case, and at times in the first and second rounds, it seemed that Condit was running. With Diaz marching into him, it seemed that he was a bit tentative to pull the trigger; unsure of how to deal with the aggressive boxing that was coming his way.

Things changed for “The Natural Born Killer” in the third and fourth rounds, where he settled into the fight a bit more and found his groove. He was letting his kicks fly, and it seemed to slow Diaz down. Instead of striking on the move, Condit was able to get his kicks off and then circle away from danger. Many agreed that Diaz won rounds one and two, and that Condit won rounds three and four. It seemed that the fight would be decided on the victor of the fifth and final frame.

Condit came out and continued his retreating attack, accumulating some damage on Diaz. It appeared that Condit was edgeing Diaz out on the feet for the majority of the fifth round. In response, Diaz capitalized on an opportunity to take Condit’s back, and Diaz tripped him to the ground, securing a body triangle and immediately threatening with choke attempts. Diaz thought about an arm-bar, and just before the round came to a close, Diaz jumped for it. Condit defended, the pair scrambled, and the fight was over.

The final frame, like the fight, was a close call. It seemed to me that Diaz’s back control and attempts to finish the fight could have earned him the fifth round, meaning that he should win a 47-46 decision. The judges thought otherwise.

Judge Cecil Peoples scored the fight: 10-9, 10-9, 9-10, 10-9, 10-9 for Condit.

Judge Patricia Morse Jarman scored the fight: 10-9, 10-9, 9-10, 10-9, 10-9 for Condit.

Judge Junichiro Kamijo scored the fight: 10-9, 9-10, 10-9, 10-9, 9-10 for Condit.

The judges seem to have three very different opinions of how the fight went. The only judge who I can even be sure watched the fight was Judge Junichiro Kamijo. Collectively, the trio awarded Condit a Unanimous Decision. The ruling angered Diaz, who decided to retire in the cage in his post-fight interview.

“I’m not going to accept the fact that this was a loss. That ain’t right,” said Diaz.

“I pushed him back the whole fight, I walked him down, I got the take-down. I won on top… I think I’m done with this MMA. It’s been great out here, I’ve had a good career. You guys pay me way too much, but I don’t think I’m going to keep going in this. It’s been a good time. Good job Carlos, you’re the man bro.”

When Joe Rogan asked Diaz if his retirement was certain, Diaz refused to back down.

“I don’t need this shit. I pushed this guy backwards the whole time, he ran from me the whole fight. I landed the harder shots, he ran the whole time. He kicked me in my leg with little baby leg kicks the whole fight. If that’s the way they understand how to win around here, I don’t want to play this game no more,” he concluded.

Two things stood out to me during the course of the co-main event at UFC 143 between Fabricio Werdum and Roy “Big Country” Nelson in the heavyweight division. First was that Werdum’s striking has improved greatly over the last three years away from the sports’ main stage. Secondly, that Nelson will probably never be KO’ed or TKO’ed in a fight. This marks the third time that Nelson has taken fifteen minutes of punishment to the face and kept moving forward in the fight. Junior do Santos didn’t stop him; Frank Mir didn’t stop him and now Werdum. Not only can Nelson take punishment and last for all three rounds against the sports’ best, but he also retains his focus. During his fights with the three previously mentioned fighters, Nelson was always looking for a way to end the fight with a big overhand right or by submission.

During the first round of action, Werdum was able to get Nelson into the Muay Tia plum clinch and deliver several knees to Nelson’s face. One in particular was able to open a medium size, semi-vertical cut on Nelson, just over his right eye. It started to release blood almost immediately. So much blood in fact that the referee paused the action for the Octagon side doctor to clean off his face and check the location of the gash. The blood did not rush into Nelson’s eyes so the doctor and referee cleared him to continue the fight. Soon after the fight resumed Werdum landed another knee to Nelson’s face from the clinch that made an awful sound, which the camera picked up and broadcasted to everyone watching. It sounds like a baseball bat hitting a head of ice burg lettuce. I thought for sure the fight would be soon over or that Nelson had a broken orbital bone. Neither outcome came true.

Nelson. Is. Tough.

The knee that opened Nelson’s face up was the most significant strike landed by either fighter for the rest of the fight. In the second round Nelson was able to get a standing headlock on his opponent after a takedown attempt by Werdum. It was in tight too; you could clearly see that Nelson’s right forearm was underneath Werdum chin. Nelson realized this and quickly tried to secure his hands together and turn Werdums’ back against the cage. A standing guillotine chock was now menu and chef Nelson was looking to fully deliver. Because of Werdums’ black belt knowledge of submissions, he recognized the attempt, fought the hands of Nelson and clear himself out of danger. That attempted turned out to be the closest Nelson would come to finishing the fight. The rest of bout consisted of back and forth punches to the head and one takedown from Nelson, but didn’t play the jiu-jitsu game with Verdum.

Stats…
According to FightMetric.com, the official stat web site of the UFC, Werdum out-struck Nelson by a total of 91 to 26 in the entire fight.

Official Result…
Fabricio Werdum was victorious via a unanimous decision.

Next Opponent…
Werdum has made a large impact with his return to the UFC. His next opponent should reflect the progress he has made and receive a mid or high tier fighter in the heavyweight division. A fight between Werdum and Frank Mir would make sense or Werdum could also take on the winner of Mark Hunt and Check Kongo.

Nelson’s next opponent could be someone from the lower tier of the division to get his win streak back up to par. A fight with Christian Morecraft would defiantly give him motivation to win and win impressively.

Next Training Session…
Werdum became a little gassed towards the end of the second round. I think that if he had a bigger gas tank he may have been able to finish Nelson with a submission. Werdum needs to work on his killer instinct and go in for the finish when he knows his opponent is hurt.

Nelson was the slimmest he has ever been for a UFC fight; he weighed-in at 246 on the eve of battle. I think Nelson needs to come in with a game plan. It seems to me that he just shows up to fight and hopes to hit him more times than his opponent hits him. Because he is shorter than most of the heavies in the division, he needs to fight smart and not just hard. If he combined his mental ability to out smart his opponent and his durability, he could be a top heavyweight by the middle of 2013.