Ultimate Fight Night 81 Betting Results

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Results

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

Wow what a great event for us. We had a total of 5 bets with 4 being straight up bets and one parlay. We had a great feeling about a lot of the underdogs, and man did they perform. We ended up with a ROI of +100.46%. That was just slightly more than doubling our money we bet. Not bad.  You can see our results at Cappertek.  Also note that all of January we are making our bets free, but come February, we will be putting most of them behind the paywall at Cappertek.  With a ROI of 100% on this event, it would be well worth the $6.95 for a single days access to get our picks.

So just how did the bets pan out? Our first bet was our 2 fight parlay with Rob Font and Ben Saunders both needing to be victorious. Saunders wound up on the wrong side of Cote’s heavy hands and went down in the second round. We had thought that Saunders’s reach was going to be a big factor, but Cote was able to nullify that. Font did win his portion of the parlay with a TKO victory over Joey Gomez, but this shows exactly why we typically don’t do parlay bets. We bet and lost 1 unit on this parlay.

The rest of our bets were on the main card. Travis Browne was our lone betting favorite on the night. After accidentally poking Mitrione twice in the eye, Browne landed a punch flush to the orbital socket of Mitrione. Mitrione’s eye swelled up very quickly and Browne capitalized on his hurt opponent scoring the TKO victory late in the third round. We bet 1.5 units on Browne at -150 odds for a ROI of 1 unit.

Francisco Trinaldo outworked Ross Pearson throughout most of the fight. The rounds were close, but Trinaldo was landing more and when the judges’s score cards were read there was no doubt we had won our bet. We bet 1 unit on Trinaldo with odds of +130 to profit 1.3 units.

The fight that scared us the most was Anthony Pettis taking on Eddie Alvarez. The blueprint was found on how to beat Pettis, grind him against the cage and go for takedown after takedown. This has now been proven true in three fights with Guida and dos Anjos also besting Pettis using the same methods. Alvarez had the game plan and stuck to it. The first round was very hard to judge and the final two were split between them. We thought Alvarez did enough in that first round to warrant a 29-28 scorecard and two judges agreed. We bet 1 unit at +275 to earn 2.75 units of profit.

The main event featured Domick Cruz fighting for a title he never truly lost against TJ Dillashaw. We had Cruz favored in this fight at +120 and risked 2 units on him. Cruz and Dillashaw both tried to use their footwork to outland their opponent with Dillashaw being the more aggressive fighter. But Cruz had zero fear in the cage and was just moving enough to get out of the way of most of Dillashaw’s strikes. Cruz while throwing fewer punches was landing far more. We had the fight 49-46 for Cruz and two judges agreed that Cruz won the fight. The split decision victory netted us 2.4 units.

The next card will be UFC on Fox 18. Look for our betting advice to come out shortly after the full fight odds to maximize our best bets.

UFC 195 Poster

UFC 195 Betting Results

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Results

The first fight of 2016 is in the books. We made nine bets on the card and went 5-4 but were profitable by 2.82 units or a ROI of 15.67%. The night of action was headlined by Robbie Lawler defending his belt against Carlos Condit. Let’s get onto our results.

First up we will tackle our losing bets. Drew Dober defeated Scott Holtzman via unanimous decision. By our model, Dober should have been outclassed by Holtzman’s takedowns, but it was Dober who surprised many with his take downs of Holtzman. We had a single unit bet on Holtzman and of course lost that unit.

We then had Kyle Noke taking on late notice replacement Alex Morono. Statistically speaking, short notice UFC debut fighters lose a lot more than they win. It is why Noke was a near 3 to 1 favorite over Morono and we bet 1.5 units on Noke to win. A close split decision loss for Noke and for us.

Abel Trujillo surprised everyone with his quick finish of Tony Sims. Stylistically Sims was the younger, faster fighter, but Trujillo got a much needed win but we lost 1.5 units on this fight.

Our last loss on the night was Andrei Arlovski. While the “old” Arlovski was not favored at all in this fight, his resurgence since returning the UFC warranted him a closer look. Miicic however was absolutely dominant in his quick 54 second KO of Arlovski. With Arlovsky’s underdog status, we felt it was only appropriate to bet a single unit on him.

In all, the four fights we lost we bet a total of 5 units.

The winning fights were just as exciting. Our first win of the night was Justine Kish making her UFC debut against Nina Ansaroff. The fight was a lot closer than the 30-27×2 scorecard would have you believe. Wish was a highly touted prospect and was the odds on favorite at -235. We bet 2 units on her to win .85 units.

The biggest favorite of the night was Michael McDonald taking on Masanori Kanehara. McDonald was a huge -535 and looked like he was going to lose the fight to Kanehara multiple times. In the first round McDonald was trapped in a guillotine choke and in the second an arm triangle choke. He was able to escape the arm triangle and quickly took Kanehara’s back and sunk in a fight winning rear naked choke. We bet 2 units on him to win .37 units.

Brian Ortega had a very slow start against the very dangerous Diego Brandao. Brandao like Trujillo earlier needed a win and showed up to fight. Ortega was extremely patient and down on the score cards had one of the best jiu jitsu transitions ever seen inside the octagon eventually ending up with a fight ending triangle choke that force Brandao to tap. We bet 2 units on Ortega to win 1.09.

Joe Rogan’s most anticipated fight was between Albert Tumenov and Lorenz Larkin. Larkin punished Tumenov’s legs with leg kick after leg kick. Tumenov still pressed forward in the action and the fight was razor thin close but Tumenov was able to escape with the split decision victory and our 2 unit bet at -253 netted us .79 units.

The main event was expected to see fireworks and it delivered. While not as crazy as Lawler’s previous title defense, Condit showed up. Condit outstruck Lawler in the fight and many had him winning. It all came down to a very close third round and two judges saw it for Lawler, while one saw it for Condit. We expect the fight to be a blood bath with Lawler winning and we bet big on Lawler. Our 5 unit bet at -106 returned us 4.72 units.

In all we bet 18 units and walked away with 20.82 or a profit of 2.82 units. While not the greatest results we’ve had, any time we are profitable it is a good thing. Please take a look at our Cappertek results where you can find our picks. We will soon be putting our picks behind a paywall, but for now, they are free for everyone to see.

Next card is UFC Fight Night 81, where we will be looking at as many as 9 bets on that card.