UFN 82: Hendricks vs Thompson Betting Advice

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Advice

UFC_FN_FOXSPORTS_Hendricks_v_Thompson_16x9Last event didn’t go so well for us. We wound up with -1.55 units and a -7.38 ROI. However For the month of January we still earned a nice 17.14% ROI with 7.8 units gained. Not too bad.

Let’s get into this event. UFN 82 has a lot of favorites that should win. It makes betting this card even more difficult as we need to find the right balance of units wagered while still trying to maximize our ROI for the event. With that said we are planning on making eight different bets and two will be free. The rest you can purchase at Cappertek for just $6.95.

Our two free bets are:
Ray Borg over Justin Scoggins for 3 units @ -265.to gain 1.13 units
Joseph Benavidez over Zach Makovsky for 2 units @ -405 to gain .49 units

We also have a silly parlay of all our predicted winners where 1 unit would net us over 105 unit return. But we aren’t really betting that, we just like to have it on here because we can.

UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs Bader Betting Advice

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Advice

Johnson-Bader-poster-750The third UFC card of 2016 is upon us and it will be headlined by what should be a number one contender’s fight between Anthony Johnson and Ryan Bader. Last event, UFN 81 we had a great result with 100.46% ROI. This event we aren’t as fortunate to have as many underdogs winning on our model and the max we could win is roughly 55% ROI. You can track all of our results at CapperTek.

Alright here are our bets. Remember these are still free, but as of February we will only be providing one free bet while the rest will be behind the paywall.

Anthony Johnson 3 units @ -350 to win .86 units
Josh Barnet 2 units @ -135 to win 1.48 units
Jimmie Rivera 1 unit @ -170 to win .59 units
Olivier Aubin-Mercier 3 units @ -290 to win 1.03 units
Kevin Casey 1 unit @ +140 to win 1.4 units
George Sullivan 1 unit @ +110 to win 1.1 units
Evan Makashvili 2 units @ -310 to win .65 units

Total units bet: 13
Total potential to win: 7.11
Possible ROI: 54.67%

Side bet that we really aren’t betting; parlay of all 7 fights. $1 to win $32.08. We know that being 100% is very difficult, and we don’t believe in parlays really. We just find it fun to play the “what if we get them all right” game.

Update: We got great odds on Johnson at -260 so we bet big on him at 10 units to win 3.85 so we took it.

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

Ultimate Fight Night 81 Betting Advice

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Advice

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

Alright folks, let’s talk about UFN 81: Dillashaw vs Cruz and the betting lines. As always, this is just advice and no way should you hold myself or MMARecap responsible if these bets fail to pan out. You can of course see our track record over at Cappertek where as of this writing we were at +15.67% for the month of January and +13.49% overall. For the rest of the month of January all of our picks will be free, but come February there will only be one free pick given and the rest will be behind the paywall at Cappertek.

Our first bet of the night is going to be a two team parlay. The first leg is Rob Font defeating Joey Gomez and the second leg is Ben Saunders defeating Patrick Cote. Both fighters have looked great in the UFC and while normally we don’t advise on parlays, in this case the payout is worth it. Font is sitting at -230 and Saunders is at -135. The parlay of the two gives us odds of +149 and we are betting a single unit on this two fight parlay.

Our lone favorite to win in our straight bets is Travis Browne taking on Matt Mitrione. Mitrione has been hit or miss and Browne has shown he is a beast inside the cage. Mitrione has a very ho-hum attitude going into this fight and normally that would read as a good thing. However due to other events that have happened, we are thinking Mitrione might be walking away from the sport after this fight win or lose and thus his head isn’t in the right place. We bet 1.5 units on Browne at -147 to win 1.02 units.

This card is ripe with underdogs who for one reason or another are being overlooked by the betting public. Francisco Trinaldo is one our favorite bets at +130 over Ross Pearson. Pearson is 3-3 in his last 6 while Trinaldo is 5-1 in his last 6. We are betting a single unit to win 1.3 units.

Due to the fact that Anthony Pettis is the former champ and was the first to finish Ben Henderson, the odds are crazy in his favor. This is great for us as Eddie Alvarez is sitting at +275. While Alvarez is the older fighter, he is also the fresher fighter having last fought in June compared to Pettis who will have been out for a staggering 309 days. Additionally, due to this only being three rounds, we have to give the advantage to Alvarez. This bet will pay out a great 2.75 units on our 1 unit bet.

Our last bet of the night is former champ Dominick Cruz defeating current champ T.J. Dillashaw. We were able to get odds of +123 for Cruz and they have been swinging in either direction all week. Cruz never officially lost his belt, rather was stripped due to injury after injury. Cruz took the time away from training to focus on fight analyzing which made his game even better. The only disadvantage we have for Cruz is his lengthly time away from the cage, but that is negated by all of the other stuff going on with Dillashaw and switching camps. We are betting 2 units on Cruz to win 2.46 units.