The first fight of 2016 is in the books. We made nine bets on the card and went 5-4 but were profitable by 2.82 units or a ROI of 15.67%. The night of action was headlined by Robbie Lawler defending his belt against Carlos Condit. Let’s get onto our results.
First up we will tackle our losing bets. Drew Dober defeated Scott Holtzman via unanimous decision. By our model, Dober should have been outclassed by Holtzman’s takedowns, but it was Dober who surprised many with his take downs of Holtzman. We had a single unit bet on Holtzman and of course lost that unit.
We then had Kyle Noke taking on late notice replacement Alex Morono. Statistically speaking, short notice UFC debut fighters lose a lot more than they win. It is why Noke was a near 3 to 1 favorite over Morono and we bet 1.5 units on Noke to win. A close split decision loss for Noke and for us.
Abel Trujillo surprised everyone with his quick finish of Tony Sims. Stylistically Sims was the younger, faster fighter, but Trujillo got a much needed win but we lost 1.5 units on this fight.
Our last loss on the night was Andrei Arlovski. While the “old” Arlovski was not favored at all in this fight, his resurgence since returning the UFC warranted him a closer look. Miicic however was absolutely dominant in his quick 54 second KO of Arlovski. With Arlovsky’s underdog status, we felt it was only appropriate to bet a single unit on him.
In all, the four fights we lost we bet a total of 5 units.
The winning fights were just as exciting. Our first win of the night was Justine Kish making her UFC debut against Nina Ansaroff. The fight was a lot closer than the 30-27×2 scorecard would have you believe. Wish was a highly touted prospect and was the odds on favorite at -235. We bet 2 units on her to win .85 units.
The biggest favorite of the night was Michael McDonald taking on Masanori Kanehara. McDonald was a huge -535 and looked like he was going to lose the fight to Kanehara multiple times. In the first round McDonald was trapped in a guillotine choke and in the second an arm triangle choke. He was able to escape the arm triangle and quickly took Kanehara’s back and sunk in a fight winning rear naked choke. We bet 2 units on him to win .37 units.
Brian Ortega had a very slow start against the very dangerous Diego Brandao. Brandao like Trujillo earlier needed a win and showed up to fight. Ortega was extremely patient and down on the score cards had one of the best jiu jitsu transitions ever seen inside the octagon eventually ending up with a fight ending triangle choke that force Brandao to tap. We bet 2 units on Ortega to win 1.09.
Joe Rogan’s most anticipated fight was between Albert Tumenov and Lorenz Larkin. Larkin punished Tumenov’s legs with leg kick after leg kick. Tumenov still pressed forward in the action and the fight was razor thin close but Tumenov was able to escape with the split decision victory and our 2 unit bet at -253 netted us .79 units.
The main event was expected to see fireworks and it delivered. While not as crazy as Lawler’s previous title defense, Condit showed up. Condit outstruck Lawler in the fight and many had him winning. It all came down to a very close third round and two judges saw it for Lawler, while one saw it for Condit. We expect the fight to be a blood bath with Lawler winning and we bet big on Lawler. Our 5 unit bet at -106 returned us 4.72 units.
In all we bet 18 units and walked away with 20.82 or a profit of 2.82 units. While not the greatest results we’ve had, any time we are profitable it is a good thing. Please take a look at our Cappertek results where you can find our picks. We will soon be putting our picks behind a paywall, but for now, they are free for everyone to see.
Next card is UFC Fight Night 81, where we will be looking at as many as 9 bets on that card.
Tags: Abel Trujillo, Albert Tumenov, Alex Morono, Andrei Arlovski, Brian Ortega, Carlos Ondit, Diego Brandao, Drew Dober, Justine Kish, Kyle Noke, Lorenz Larkin, Masanori Kanehara, Michael McDonald, Nina Ansaroff, Robbie Lawler, Scott Holtzman, Stipe Miocic, Tony Sims, UFC 195