Alright folks, let’s talk about UFN 81: Dillashaw vs Cruz and the betting lines. As always, this is just advice and no way should you hold myself or MMARecap responsible if these bets fail to pan out. You can of course see our track record over at Cappertek where as of this writing we were at +15.67% for the month of January and +13.49% overall. For the rest of the month of January all of our picks will be free, but come February there will only be one free pick given and the rest will be behind the paywall at Cappertek.
Our first bet of the night is going to be a two team parlay. The first leg is Rob Font defeating Joey Gomez and the second leg is Ben Saunders defeating Patrick Cote. Both fighters have looked great in the UFC and while normally we don’t advise on parlays, in this case the payout is worth it. Font is sitting at -230 and Saunders is at -135. The parlay of the two gives us odds of +149 and we are betting a single unit on this two fight parlay.
Our lone favorite to win in our straight bets is Travis Browne taking on Matt Mitrione. Mitrione has been hit or miss and Browne has shown he is a beast inside the cage. Mitrione has a very ho-hum attitude going into this fight and normally that would read as a good thing. However due to other events that have happened, we are thinking Mitrione might be walking away from the sport after this fight win or lose and thus his head isn’t in the right place. We bet 1.5 units on Browne at -147 to win 1.02 units.
This card is ripe with underdogs who for one reason or another are being overlooked by the betting public. Francisco Trinaldo is one our favorite bets at +130 over Ross Pearson. Pearson is 3-3 in his last 6 while Trinaldo is 5-1 in his last 6. We are betting a single unit to win 1.3 units.
Due to the fact that Anthony Pettis is the former champ and was the first to finish Ben Henderson, the odds are crazy in his favor. This is great for us as Eddie Alvarez is sitting at +275. While Alvarez is the older fighter, he is also the fresher fighter having last fought in June compared to Pettis who will have been out for a staggering 309 days. Additionally, due to this only being three rounds, we have to give the advantage to Alvarez. This bet will pay out a great 2.75 units on our 1 unit bet.
Our last bet of the night is former champ Dominick Cruz defeating current champ T.J. Dillashaw. We were able to get odds of +123 for Cruz and they have been swinging in either direction all week. Cruz never officially lost his belt, rather was stripped due to injury after injury. Cruz took the time away from training to focus on fight analyzing which made his game even better. The only disadvantage we have for Cruz is his lengthly time away from the cage, but that is negated by all of the other stuff going on with Dillashaw and switching camps. We are betting 2 units on Cruz to win 2.46 units.