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UFN 82: Hendricks vs Thompson Betting Advice

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Advice

UFC_FN_FOXSPORTS_Hendricks_v_Thompson_16x9Last event didn’t go so well for us. We wound up with -1.55 units and a -7.38 ROI. However For the month of January we still earned a nice 17.14% ROI with 7.8 units gained. Not too bad.

Let’s get into this event. UFN 82 has a lot of favorites that should win. It makes betting this card even more difficult as we need to find the right balance of units wagered while still trying to maximize our ROI for the event. With that said we are planning on making eight different bets and two will be free. The rest you can purchase at Cappertek for just $6.95.

Our two free bets are:
Ray Borg over Justin Scoggins for 3 units @ -265.to gain 1.13 units
Joseph Benavidez over Zach Makovsky for 2 units @ -405 to gain .49 units

We also have a silly parlay of all our predicted winners where 1 unit would net us over 105 unit return. But we aren’t really betting that, we just like to have it on here because we can.

UFC on Fox 18: Johnson vs Bader Betting Advice

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Advice

Johnson-Bader-poster-750The third UFC card of 2016 is upon us and it will be headlined by what should be a number one contender’s fight between Anthony Johnson and Ryan Bader. Last event, UFN 81 we had a great result with 100.46% ROI. This event we aren’t as fortunate to have as many underdogs winning on our model and the max we could win is roughly 55% ROI. You can track all of our results at CapperTek.

Alright here are our bets. Remember these are still free, but as of February we will only be providing one free bet while the rest will be behind the paywall.

Anthony Johnson 3 units @ -350 to win .86 units
Josh Barnet 2 units @ -135 to win 1.48 units
Jimmie Rivera 1 unit @ -170 to win .59 units
Olivier Aubin-Mercier 3 units @ -290 to win 1.03 units
Kevin Casey 1 unit @ +140 to win 1.4 units
George Sullivan 1 unit @ +110 to win 1.1 units
Evan Makashvili 2 units @ -310 to win .65 units

Total units bet: 13
Total potential to win: 7.11
Possible ROI: 54.67%

Side bet that we really aren’t betting; parlay of all 7 fights. $1 to win $32.08. We know that being 100% is very difficult, and we don’t believe in parlays really. We just find it fun to play the “what if we get them all right” game.

Update: We got great odds on Johnson at -260 so we bet big on him at 10 units to win 3.85 so we took it.

Ultimate Fight Night 81 Betting Results

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Results

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

Wow what a great event for us. We had a total of 5 bets with 4 being straight up bets and one parlay. We had a great feeling about a lot of the underdogs, and man did they perform. We ended up with a ROI of +100.46%. That was just slightly more than doubling our money we bet. Not bad.  You can see our results at Cappertek.  Also note that all of January we are making our bets free, but come February, we will be putting most of them behind the paywall at Cappertek.  With a ROI of 100% on this event, it would be well worth the $6.95 for a single days access to get our picks.

So just how did the bets pan out? Our first bet was our 2 fight parlay with Rob Font and Ben Saunders both needing to be victorious. Saunders wound up on the wrong side of Cote’s heavy hands and went down in the second round. We had thought that Saunders’s reach was going to be a big factor, but Cote was able to nullify that. Font did win his portion of the parlay with a TKO victory over Joey Gomez, but this shows exactly why we typically don’t do parlay bets. We bet and lost 1 unit on this parlay.

The rest of our bets were on the main card. Travis Browne was our lone betting favorite on the night. After accidentally poking Mitrione twice in the eye, Browne landed a punch flush to the orbital socket of Mitrione. Mitrione’s eye swelled up very quickly and Browne capitalized on his hurt opponent scoring the TKO victory late in the third round. We bet 1.5 units on Browne at -150 odds for a ROI of 1 unit.

Francisco Trinaldo outworked Ross Pearson throughout most of the fight. The rounds were close, but Trinaldo was landing more and when the judges’s score cards were read there was no doubt we had won our bet. We bet 1 unit on Trinaldo with odds of +130 to profit 1.3 units.

The fight that scared us the most was Anthony Pettis taking on Eddie Alvarez. The blueprint was found on how to beat Pettis, grind him against the cage and go for takedown after takedown. This has now been proven true in three fights with Guida and dos Anjos also besting Pettis using the same methods. Alvarez had the game plan and stuck to it. The first round was very hard to judge and the final two were split between them. We thought Alvarez did enough in that first round to warrant a 29-28 scorecard and two judges agreed. We bet 1 unit at +275 to earn 2.75 units of profit.

The main event featured Domick Cruz fighting for a title he never truly lost against TJ Dillashaw. We had Cruz favored in this fight at +120 and risked 2 units on him. Cruz and Dillashaw both tried to use their footwork to outland their opponent with Dillashaw being the more aggressive fighter. But Cruz had zero fear in the cage and was just moving enough to get out of the way of most of Dillashaw’s strikes. Cruz while throwing fewer punches was landing far more. We had the fight 49-46 for Cruz and two judges agreed that Cruz won the fight. The split decision victory netted us 2.4 units.

The next card will be UFC on Fox 18. Look for our betting advice to come out shortly after the full fight odds to maximize our best bets.

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

Ultimate Fight Night 81 Betting Advice

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Advice

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

UFN 81 Dillashaw vs Cruz

Alright folks, let’s talk about UFN 81: Dillashaw vs Cruz and the betting lines. As always, this is just advice and no way should you hold myself or MMARecap responsible if these bets fail to pan out. You can of course see our track record over at Cappertek where as of this writing we were at +15.67% for the month of January and +13.49% overall. For the rest of the month of January all of our picks will be free, but come February there will only be one free pick given and the rest will be behind the paywall at Cappertek.

Our first bet of the night is going to be a two team parlay. The first leg is Rob Font defeating Joey Gomez and the second leg is Ben Saunders defeating Patrick Cote. Both fighters have looked great in the UFC and while normally we don’t advise on parlays, in this case the payout is worth it. Font is sitting at -230 and Saunders is at -135. The parlay of the two gives us odds of +149 and we are betting a single unit on this two fight parlay.

Our lone favorite to win in our straight bets is Travis Browne taking on Matt Mitrione. Mitrione has been hit or miss and Browne has shown he is a beast inside the cage. Mitrione has a very ho-hum attitude going into this fight and normally that would read as a good thing. However due to other events that have happened, we are thinking Mitrione might be walking away from the sport after this fight win or lose and thus his head isn’t in the right place. We bet 1.5 units on Browne at -147 to win 1.02 units.

This card is ripe with underdogs who for one reason or another are being overlooked by the betting public. Francisco Trinaldo is one our favorite bets at +130 over Ross Pearson. Pearson is 3-3 in his last 6 while Trinaldo is 5-1 in his last 6. We are betting a single unit to win 1.3 units.

Due to the fact that Anthony Pettis is the former champ and was the first to finish Ben Henderson, the odds are crazy in his favor. This is great for us as Eddie Alvarez is sitting at +275. While Alvarez is the older fighter, he is also the fresher fighter having last fought in June compared to Pettis who will have been out for a staggering 309 days. Additionally, due to this only being three rounds, we have to give the advantage to Alvarez. This bet will pay out a great 2.75 units on our 1 unit bet.

Our last bet of the night is former champ Dominick Cruz defeating current champ T.J. Dillashaw. We were able to get odds of +123 for Cruz and they have been swinging in either direction all week. Cruz never officially lost his belt, rather was stripped due to injury after injury. Cruz took the time away from training to focus on fight analyzing which made his game even better. The only disadvantage we have for Cruz is his lengthly time away from the cage, but that is negated by all of the other stuff going on with Dillashaw and switching camps. We are betting 2 units on Cruz to win 2.46 units.

UFC 195 Poster

UFC 195 Betting Results

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Betting Results

The first fight of 2016 is in the books. We made nine bets on the card and went 5-4 but were profitable by 2.82 units or a ROI of 15.67%. The night of action was headlined by Robbie Lawler defending his belt against Carlos Condit. Let’s get onto our results.

First up we will tackle our losing bets. Drew Dober defeated Scott Holtzman via unanimous decision. By our model, Dober should have been outclassed by Holtzman’s takedowns, but it was Dober who surprised many with his take downs of Holtzman. We had a single unit bet on Holtzman and of course lost that unit.

We then had Kyle Noke taking on late notice replacement Alex Morono. Statistically speaking, short notice UFC debut fighters lose a lot more than they win. It is why Noke was a near 3 to 1 favorite over Morono and we bet 1.5 units on Noke to win. A close split decision loss for Noke and for us.

Abel Trujillo surprised everyone with his quick finish of Tony Sims. Stylistically Sims was the younger, faster fighter, but Trujillo got a much needed win but we lost 1.5 units on this fight.

Our last loss on the night was Andrei Arlovski. While the “old” Arlovski was not favored at all in this fight, his resurgence since returning the UFC warranted him a closer look. Miicic however was absolutely dominant in his quick 54 second KO of Arlovski. With Arlovsky’s underdog status, we felt it was only appropriate to bet a single unit on him.

In all, the four fights we lost we bet a total of 5 units.

The winning fights were just as exciting. Our first win of the night was Justine Kish making her UFC debut against Nina Ansaroff. The fight was a lot closer than the 30-27×2 scorecard would have you believe. Wish was a highly touted prospect and was the odds on favorite at -235. We bet 2 units on her to win .85 units.

The biggest favorite of the night was Michael McDonald taking on Masanori Kanehara. McDonald was a huge -535 and looked like he was going to lose the fight to Kanehara multiple times. In the first round McDonald was trapped in a guillotine choke and in the second an arm triangle choke. He was able to escape the arm triangle and quickly took Kanehara’s back and sunk in a fight winning rear naked choke. We bet 2 units on him to win .37 units.

Brian Ortega had a very slow start against the very dangerous Diego Brandao. Brandao like Trujillo earlier needed a win and showed up to fight. Ortega was extremely patient and down on the score cards had one of the best jiu jitsu transitions ever seen inside the octagon eventually ending up with a fight ending triangle choke that force Brandao to tap. We bet 2 units on Ortega to win 1.09.

Joe Rogan’s most anticipated fight was between Albert Tumenov and Lorenz Larkin. Larkin punished Tumenov’s legs with leg kick after leg kick. Tumenov still pressed forward in the action and the fight was razor thin close but Tumenov was able to escape with the split decision victory and our 2 unit bet at -253 netted us .79 units.

The main event was expected to see fireworks and it delivered. While not as crazy as Lawler’s previous title defense, Condit showed up. Condit outstruck Lawler in the fight and many had him winning. It all came down to a very close third round and two judges saw it for Lawler, while one saw it for Condit. We expect the fight to be a blood bath with Lawler winning and we bet big on Lawler. Our 5 unit bet at -106 returned us 4.72 units.

In all we bet 18 units and walked away with 20.82 or a profit of 2.82 units. While not the greatest results we’ve had, any time we are profitable it is a good thing. Please take a look at our Cappertek results where you can find our picks. We will soon be putting our picks behind a paywall, but for now, they are free for everyone to see.

Next card is UFC Fight Night 81, where we will be looking at as many as 9 bets on that card.

What To Do When Your Show Gets Cancelled

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Education

cancelled

In light of the recent cancelation of an mma event, I have decided to pen the proper way to handle such a thing should it ever happen in the future. By no means is this a be-all-end-all must do list, but it will take a very bad situation, minimize the damage, and help secure your future instead of making a big scene about the situation, maximize the damage, and really hurt any future cards you may put on.

So you find out that you have to cancel your event. This could be due to any number of valid reasons to you. The reasons themselves, DO NOT MATTER. The point is they are valid enough for you to cancel your event.

The first thing you want to do is draft a press release stating your event is cancelled and give a reason for it. While giving that reason, take accountability for it 100%. It doesn’t matter if the state athletic commission screwed you over, your main event fighter pulled out with an injury, no matter what the reason is, take accountability for it. Have this press release ready to go public in a moments notice.

The next thing you need to do is call ALL of your fighters that were fighting on the card. Explain to them that the card is cancelled, but that you are going to be trying to find them a new fight in the near future, while also wanting to keep them on your rescheduled card. Then explain to them to not leak the info that the card is cancelled as you want to PERSONALLY call every fighter and explain the situation and after you have called every single fighter you will release a press release. If a fighter doesn’t understand this concept, just ask them if they were happy that you called them personally or would have preferred to have heard it from a random person on the internet.

After calling all of your fighters, send out your press release. After doing so, start calling all the reporters you can to get your apology out there first. This is important. Again, it doesn’t matter what the reason was, so long as you take responsibility for it and are out in front of the situation, you will be fine.

If your next event is within the next four weeks, put the fighters on that card. If it is more than four weeks, look to your competitors. Explain that you had to cancel your show and offer them fights. EVEN IF THEY WERE YOUR TITLE FIGHT. Doing this shows good will for the fighters, the fans, and other promoters. If you called a promoter because you had to cancel an event and put three fights on their card, who do you think they will call first when they have to cancel one of their own?

Finally, offer everyone who purchased a ticket to get a full refund AND a discount for the next show. Yes this cuts into your profits, but the moment a fan hears that a show was cancelled before, they are going to be much less likely to purchase a ticket to future events. If you give them a reason, other than the fights, they will go.

While it is easy to point out the things to do, and they seem like common sense, that isn’t always the case. Just so there is some clarification on this, below is a bullet list of things NOT to do.

  • Delay getting your story out there. Every second matters
  • Ignore fighter calls, emails, and texts about a cancelation rumor
  • Point the blame at someone else, ultimately it is your show
  • Publicly call out other promotions who try to help the fighters still get a fight
  • Insult anyone related in the business, fighters, managers, refs, media, etc…

Episode 2: MMARecap Weekly Recap

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in RecapRadio

recap-radio-featured
This week’s Weekly Recap starts out with results from Legacy FC 20, Cage Warriors 55, Colosseum Combat and Hoosier Fight Club. News includes changes made to TUF, UFC 160 salaries and suspensions, new signings to several promotions and more. Fight announcements include several UFC cards, a change to Bellator 96, and Nick Diaz Promotions. We end with listener feedback, including Ask MMARecap.


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Episode 1: MMARecap Weekly Recap

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in RecapRadio

recap-radio-featured
MMARecap is back with a brand new weekly podcast. This is the only incarnation that makes sense for bringing back MMARecap so look for a new podcast on Sunday night or Monday morning of each week. Please leave feedback below and it could be read on the next week’s show. This week’s topics include results from UFC 160, CFA 11, Fightcard Massacre 2013, and Praetorian Fighting Championships 1. Then the news of the week covers fighters retiring, being signed, and involved in lawsuits. The show then goes on to talk about fight announcements and is finished with listener feedback. Sit back and enjoy.


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Brent Todd – MMARecap’s Long Goodbye

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Media

It is a funny thing, saying goodbye to someone or to something. There is part of you that is happy it is over, part of you that is sad that it is ending, and then another part that still wants to try to keep it for the fear of what lies next. It is those later two reasons, that it has taken me nearly three weeks to pen this and actually publish it. The what if’s in life can make a person go crazy, but so can peddling in place.

I started this sport of as a fan of the sport; debating who was best at the time and sitting on pins and needles waiting for the next show. Back then we were lucky if we had double digit UFC shows in a year; now we have thirty plus. The sport was growing, and I wanted to become part of the media that covered it. So I jumped in feet first, not knowing what I was doing. In the five plus years of being a journalist I have seen some of the best compete, sometimes just feet away from me at cageside.

For the longest time I was excited by the prospect of each show. It didn’t matter if it was a big UFC event or a small local amateur show held in front of two hundred people. I was amazed by the talent, skill and heart that was on display at each show. Over the years I changed. The excitement of each show started to fade, even when sitting close enough to the action to get bled on. I cannot sit back and let the reason I got into the sport disappear while I just chug on writing word after word. Realizing what was happening to my view of mixed martial arts, a decision had to be made and thus, I need to walk away from writing about it.

I want to thank all of the former writers and staff members at MMARecap. Adam Dicker was the first person to come on board and help write, and quickly transitioned it to a judging position. Andrew Gladstone is another write whom the site wouldn’t be where it is without him. He went on to write for the likes of Sherdog and MMAWeekly. Big thanks to Mike Finch who has consistently done a fantastic job with his interviews, sometimes on minutes notice with little time to prepare.

My co-host of RecapRadio over the course of nearly two years, John Petit is a fantastic guy who is one of the most knowledgable in the sport. If you aren’t following him on twitter, do it now @scream13. His work can now be found at fighters.com and other Rebellion Media sites.

Other people who have sacrificed time, energy, and in some cases money, to help out that I need to thank include Matt Clarmont, Karly Bernard, Matt Faler, Kyle Conroy, Kevin Tate, Greggy Harrison, Andrew Cyders, Petey Ridings, Brandon Ruiz and TJ Chmielewski.

I need to thank Joey Hill for all the time he spent trying to help build MMARecap to be the best site in the Chicago area. Without his help, it likely would have died a slow and horrible death. While things did not work out between us as business partners, he is a big reason for where MMARecap was able to go. Make sure you check out his photos at Royal Divide.

I want to thank other members of the media, who not only helped me at times, but pushed me to be better at my job. Hector Quintero, Stan Balazia, Matthew C. Scaro, both Tony’s from Chi-Town MMAniacs, Brian Hemminger, Steve Muehlhausen, Tom Barnes, Ray Flores, Ed Waltz and so many others over the years.

I want to thank every promoter who let me into their show to cover it. Dan Lardy, Mike Davis, Nilo Soto, Brian Angelo, Jeff and Joe Albin, Mark Slater, Paul and Danielle Vale, the entire team behind Ruckus, and the countless other shows I have attended over the years. Additionally the teams behind the scenes who help at each of these events are just as important. Clay Goodman, Rob Madrigal, Dr. Hertz, and all the other refs, judges, doctors, and EMTs I have met throughout the years.

The fighters will always have a special place for what they put themselves through to not only test their physical limitations, but also to entertain the fans. It has been an honor seeing the likes of veterans like Jeff Curran, Jens Pulver, Chase Beebe, and others fight while at the same time watching careers explode from fighters like Carson Beebe, Dustin Neace and Will Brooks. There are fighters on the cusp of making it to a big show, and I cannot wait to be able to say that I was able to see nearly all of their early fights.

Finally, I want to thank all of the fans of the sport, both the good and the bad. Negative comments are more frequent now, but the intelligent comments are worth sifting through all the stupid ones. Without the fans, there wouldn’t be a need for me to do what I do.

I know I probably forget a name or two on here, so please know that if you are a fighter, a promoter, a brand, or just a fan of the sport and interacted with either the website or myself, I thank you.

What is next for me, I am not certain. I know I will still enjoy the sport I love, I just won’t be writing about it in the same capacity anymore. Many have said that I can only stay away for a little while and that this is just going to be a break. They could be right, I am not sure. I will be leaving this website up along with our facebook, twitter, and youtube for historical purposes. Maybe one day I will become that fan again and want to write about it, but who knows. With that I wish everyone the best in each of their endeavors and once again, thank you.

The Man Behind The Lens – Tom Barnes

Written by MMARecap Staff on . Posted in Media

tom-barnesSitting cage-side at almost any boxing or MMA event in the Chicagoland area you are bound to see one person; Tom Barnes. He’s the hired photographer who goes about his business quietly and produces some of the most memorable photos in the sport. We see his pictures fly across facebook, being shared and tagged and commented on, all with a little gold watermark of his company, Tomba Images somewhere on the picture.

It is rare to see Barnes get miffed even in the slightest, but it is easy to see him light up when he reminisces about some of the pictures he has taken. He also has a sense of when a fight is going to be larger than life, even if it is at a smaller stage, and you can see him go into his zone.

They say that it doesn’t matter what the equipment is, you have to have an artistic eye in order to truly capture the best moments. Sure the top of the line camera and lens will help, but like the fighter who has been inside the cage for twenty some odd fights, there isn’t much that Barnes isn’t aware of.

His story for shooting combat sports starts over a decade ago, but Barnes has been shooting photography for much longer. He was always a freelance photographer, shooting the odd job here, the wedding there, but one day he got tired of shooting people. He just didn’t see people with an artistic eye anymore.

So he moved on and decided to focus on architectural photography. Buildings are things of beauty, but given the right framing, angle, and focus, they shine. Barnes grew up on the west side of Chicago, and decided to shoot both the exterior and the interiors of buildings.

One day, he entered the Garfield Park Fieldhouse, a place he had been before. He went from room to room, shooting his subject with both large and medium format film. He thought he knew the building pretty well until he found a room he had never been in before. Inside the windows were all covered up, there was an American flag hung up, and also a boxing ring. The ring fascinated Barnes so much so that he went back the next day. And the next. And the next.

He struck up a conversation with George Hernandez, one of the top boxing trainers in the Chicagoland area. That lead to Barnes going to other boxing gyms such as the old Windy City Gym and Jab Gym. That lead to him shooting at the Golden Gloves, and back to shooting people again.

The transition from boxing to MMA was an easy one as there has been a lot of crossover between the sports. And while there are technical issues to shooting a boxing match or a cage fight, it is all the same for Barnes who enjoys them both.

What was harder for him was switching from film to digital. The speed of the sports world and the now of today forced him to change. But back in the early days, he was a film guy through and through. He developed his own film, worked in the traditional dark room, and printed all of his own stuff be it color or black and white. He wanted nothing to do with digital photography.

His wife Deb, whom at the time wasn’t his wife, was a photographer as well. Though she was of the digital variety instead of film. Barnes stated that he tried to shoot boxing with traditional film but it was kind of tough. He tried out her camera and then quickly upgraded to have better digital equipment.

Equipment it seems is the crux of any photographer. It seems like every week there is a new piece of equipment that can help. But it isn’t cheap. In the early goings, Barnes recalls that cost and how there isn’t an easy answer for how to purchase $30,000 worth of equipment. And ironically enough, that equipment is needed for the smaller shows, the ones in front of hundreds, not thousands of people. These shows tend to be poorly lit and require the power of the equipment. The larger shows are televised and have a lot of light, making it much easier to shoot.

And while he has had some thoughts of moving on from combat sports, he has never lost his passion or been tired of the shooting the sport. His interests are expanding, wanting to shoot other action sports such as watersports, but likely he won’t move on completely.

Why would he? He has so many memorable moments. From shooting any of the UFC, Strikeforce or Bellator events that he has been to, to the local events, there is always something for him to shoot. Being able to turn around and see the thousands of fans at these events, all cheering and screaming, it excites him.

When you ask him what his most memorable shoots were in the industry, two come to mind. The first deals in the little known studio side of the sport. These photos are rarely seen with his logo on it as they are commissioned pieces that then sometimes get enhanced. It could be a weigh-in or a promo piece, but these are the candid shots of the fighters.

felice-rosieHis favorite of these was seeing a concept from inception to completion. Felice Herrig, a fan favorite and one of the voices of women’s MMA, was the subject. The idea seemed simple at the time, shoot her as the famous Rosie the Riveter. The night before he was running around, buying clothes and trying to figure out how to make a bandana. The entire day was spent shooting to get one shot, but it quickly became famous.

Of course if you ask him what event was most memorable to him, he lights up like a kid waking up at Christmas to find a room full of presents. The event was Manny Pacquiao taking on David Diaz in Las Vegas in 2008. That night as he says, is burned into his head.

For more information on Tom Barnes, find him on Facebook under Tomba Images Photography or at http://www.tomba-images.com/